Election predictions

It's anyone's guess as to how things will turn out a week from Tuesday. I have my own idea about how the house and senate will look on November 8.

I think the Republicans will hold both. I think the margin by which they control both houses will narrow. I can't say by how much of course.

The mass media orgy of polls predicting doom and disaster for Republicans have made me suspicious because of the fact that there are so many of them, and the results are so eagerly reported by the left-wing press. The polls are the equivalent of "the lady doth protest too much". The endless barrage of numbers showing massive Democrat leads and upsets is clearly little more than wishful thinking on the part of pollsters, who weight their polls with too many Democratic participants so they can get the numbers they want. All of the numbers are designed to create a sense of fait accompli, and make those of us on the right think that the election is all but over so we won't bother to vote.

I can't say how such an approach affects most voters. I can say that in my case, it doesn't change my mind. I'd vote for the candidate I favor if I was the only one to do so.

There's little doubt that the war in Iraq has hurt the popularity of President Bush, and the Republicans in Congress. But with a good economy, lower gas prices and low unemployment, there's no real solid reason for people in general to be as angry at the party in power as the press would have us believe.

The attempt to depress the vote on the right has taken other forms besides loaded polls. The Mark Foley scandal was meant to drive away Christian voters. It's interesting to me that Foley resigned right away, and yet the story dominated the news for at least a week. It's all anyone wanted to talk about. North Korea was setting off a nuke, but ABC wanted to play up the latest dirty instant messages. They fired the gun too soon though. The Foley story has played itself out already. No one cares any more.

I don't think there's a "throw the bums out" landslide in the mold of 1994 approaching. We'll see if I'm right or not. I'm ready to head to the voting booth myself. I won't be staying home.