The Six Year Itch

We saw an ugly election result a few weeks ago. What can I say? I called it wrong.

The Six Year Itch has struck again. When you go back and look at off-year elections in a President's sixth year in office, there is almost always a loss. Sometimes a huge loss. Clinton was a bit of an exception, in that his loss occurred in 1994, his second year in office. Let's look at a few numbers.

1874, Grant's sixth year in office. Lost 8 in the Senate, 96 in the house.
1894, Clevland re-elected, defacto sixth year. Lost 5 in the Senate, 116 in the House.
1906, Teddy Roosevelt's sixth year, bucked the trend a bit. Gained 3 in the Senate, lost 28 in the House.
1918, Wilson, lost 6 in the Senate, lost 19 in the House.
1938, the great FDR, lost 6 in the Senate, 71 in the House.
1950, Truman, lost 6 in the Senate, 59 in the House.
1958, Eisenhower, lost 13 in the Senate, 48 in the House.
1966, Johnson, lost 4 in the Senate, 47 in the House.
1974, Nixon, lost 5 in the Senate, 48 in the House.
1986, the great Ronald Reagan even lost seats, 8 in the Senate and 5 in the House.
1994, Clinton bucked the trend with early losses, losing 9 in the Senate, 54 in the House.
2006, Bush, loses 6 in the Senate, 28 in the House.

Bush's losses are just about average.

I sense a historical trend here, not a massive upset. I feel more cheerful now.

I do hope that with the Republican spanking we'll see a return to a more conservative party. I won't hold my breath on that, but I'll be hopeful.